2009 – the year of the property guru – YOU!

Here at 4Walls, we are not too enamoured of New Year's.  Faux merriment, excessive drinking, ridiculous resolutions and general malaise.  Not to mention the morning after!

There's one great opportunity, though... Brand new expectations are set, expectations just waiting to be shattered.

Like an empty Moleskin notebook, the possibilities are exciting.  Why not exceed them?

The place where expectations are lowest: leadership.  Everyone expects you to get in line and follow, not lead.

The opportunity this year is bigger than ever:  to lead change, to create a movement in a direction you want to go. While the rest of your world huddles and holds back, here's a golden chance to use cheap media, available attention and great talent to make something that matters.

It's the year to find your own "space".  What works for you and your goals, and not the sales organisation.

2009 is the year for MASSIVE change and growth.  The year that you stop relying on third parties, and step up to the plate to take responsibility for your decisions.  In other words, become your own property guru!

2009 is the year when ...

Business, as we know it, changes.  More on-line than off-line.  Social and business networking will take over from "board meetings" and "hanging around the water cooler" and fosters trust in on-line communities.

Investing in property, as we know it, changes.  Instead of being a "hobby", it becomes a business.

The way we operate as consumers changes.  The internet will take over from the High Street.

Networking changes.  It's more important now than ever as more and more people start operating in Web 2.0 mentality.

We started preparing for the “credit crunch” in summer 2007, I found this blog I wrote in July 2007 that gave me the insight - click here  – it’s wasn’t rocket science to see what was going to happen. Likewise we started preparing for 2009 in summer 2008.

Here are our thoughts on 2009:

• Interest rates stay low.
• Better mortgages appear third quarter of 2009.
• Lending criteria eases third quarter of 2009.
• Following a transition period, when current glut of rental properties are used up, rents start to rise.
• Developers "mothball" developments and focus on banking land.  This leads to new build at a premium as they control the supply.
• People choose to stay in homes they might have sold in better market conditions.  Increase in home improvements, extensions, loft conversions etc. (more work for builders!).
• Increase in popularity of room rents in multi-lets, HMO's and house shares.
• U.K. holiday lets have bumper years as families choose to holiday at home due to the credit crunch, and strength of the Euro.
• Countries in the Eurozone suffer to a degree, but still appeal to those that want to holiday abroad, as they are within the cheap flight tax zone.  Long haul investment destinations suffer as people choose not to fly due to the credit crunch.
• Mortgage brokers (as we know them) disappear.
• Estate agents (as we know them) disappear.  More estate agents turn their offices over to lettings agencies.
• Increase in repossessions of amateur BTLetters who have purchased in the past five years, without cashflow.
• Property clubs, NMD schemes and deal packagers go bust taking lots of peoples' money with them.  The signs are already there.  (This is why anyone should be wary of paying large sums of money upfront with no tangible result or guarantees).
• The death of the "armchair investor".  Thank goodness! (It never ceases to amaze me that this phrase was used and adhered to, how can anyone put their name to potentially millions of £’s and let someone else deal with it … most of the time they had never met before!!!)
• Lots of international developments not even started, let alone finished.  Lots of small international developers go bust and people lose money. (Most of these will be in tertiary markets where the capital up-lift was sold, not the marketing capability)
• Terrorism and violent crime have negative impact on investment destinations i.e. Turkey, Brazil, Etc.
• Lots of people made redundant.  Increase in people starting their own businesses.  Entreprenuers flourish. (THIS IS IMPORTANT AS THIS HEARALDS WEB 2.0 INTO THE MAINSTREAM).
• The way business is done changes dramatically.   Transparency is everything.  The internet reveals all. (WEB 2.0 AGAIN)
• Wide and shallow business models fail.  Narrow and deep business models prosper.
• Property has to be treated and respected as a serious business.
• Cash (and gold) is king!  Cash flow is vital, no matter how wealthy you are.

Remember, when currencies fail, the world reverts to gold, also everyone needs a roof over their head.

However, the one abiding thing that remains consistent in our message to you for 2009 is "cash flow is king".  Always has been, and always will be!  

Strap on your seat-belt, it's going to be a challenging, but ultimately fulfilling ride for those who remain committed!

Happy New Year and we look forward to making new business relationships, new ventures, and new friends in 2009.   We are also committed to supporting as many people as possible in achieving their property goals in 2009.  

Stay in touch, and you can always find me on facebook, ecademy, social median, friendfeed etc 

P.S Tip of the hat to Seth Godin for continued inspiration.